Institute Original Research
Adaptive Demography Theory
A research framework exploring how societies can maintain quality of life, social cohesion and institutional resilience in a period of long-term population decline and ageing.
SLOVENIA · DEMOGRAPHIC OBSERVATORY
Research and Analysis
A data and research centre for understanding fertility, population ageing, migration, municipal differences and long-term projections for Slovenia.
1.52Total fertility rate
−4,631Natural increase 2024
22.3%Population aged 65+
2,124,000Population of Slovenia
Original conceptual framework
Beyond 2.1: Effective Replacement Fertility
A conceptual framework examining whether the classical 2.1 reference point remains sufficient in a Europe where a growing share of people never become parents.
Research Areas
Institute Original Research
Fertility and Family in Slovenia
Natural Population Increase
Age Structure and Population Ageing
Migration and Population Flows
Population Projections for Slovenia
Municipalities: Top 10 by Natural Increase
Regional Demography of Slovenia
Slovenia vs European Union
PDF Research Center
Fertility
Fertility and Family in Slovenia
Fertility is one of the key indicators of Slovenia’s demographic future. Data for 2008–2024 show that the number of live births is declining, while the total fertility rate remains below the replacement level.
In 2008, 21,817 children were born in Slovenia; in 2024 the number was 16,875. The total fertility rate stood at 1.64 in 2021, then declined to 1.51 in 2023 and 1.52 in 2024.
Key finding: the challenge is not only low fertility. The number of women of reproductive age is also decreasing, motherhood is shifting to later ages, and future generations are becoming smaller.
Sources: SURS / SiStat; Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024; IMAD, Fertility Indicators in Slovenia, 2024.
Natural increase
Natural Population Increase
Natural increase is the difference between the number of live births and deaths. It shows whether a country’s population is renewing itself naturally or would shrink without migration.
After 2016, the trend shifted. Deaths began to exceed births. In 2024, natural increase was approximately −4,631.
Key finding: Slovenia has recorded more deaths than births in recent years. Without a positive migration balance, total population growth would not be sustained in the long term.
Sources: SURS / SiStat, vital statistics 2008–2024; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Ageing
Age Structure and Population Ageing
Population ageing is one of the strongest demographic trends in Slovenia. In 2024, Slovenia had approximately 2.12 million inhabitants, but the internal age structure is changing rapidly.
The share of children remains low while the share of older people is rising. In 2024, around 22.3% of the population was aged 65 or older.
Key finding: when there are too few children and more older people, pressure increases on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and the labour market.
Sources: SURS / SiStat; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024; IMAD.
Migration
Migration and Population Flows
Migration has become one of the key factors shaping Slovenia’s demographic picture. Since natural increase has been mostly negative after 2016, total population numbers are increasingly sustained by a positive migration balance.
In 2024, 33,023 people immigrated to Slovenia and 21,491 emigrated, resulting in a migration balance of +11,532.
Key finding: immigration currently mitigates the effects of low fertility and negative natural increase.
Sources: SURS / SiStat; Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Projections
Population Projections for Slovenia
Long-term population projections show that Slovenia will continue to face low fertility, population ageing and growing pressure on the working-age population in the coming decades.
Under the EUROPOP2023 baseline scenario, Slovenia is projected to record approximately 16,735 live births in 2030, 18,098 in 2050 and around 16,592 by the end of the century.
Key finding: future population development will depend not only on births, but on the balance between young, working-age and older generations.
Sources: Eurostat EUROPOP2023; SURS / SiStat; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Municipalities
Municipalities: Top 10 by Natural Increase
Municipal data reveal Slovenia’s demographic reality more precisely than national averages. Between 2020 and 2024 some municipalities recorded positive natural increase, while others saw a strong excess of deaths over births.
The highest positive natural increase was recorded in Ivančna Gorica, Domžale, Gorenja vas - Poljane, Novo mesto and Šentjernej.
Key finding: Slovenia’s demography is not evenly distributed. Some municipalities still show vitality, while others have experienced natural decline for several years.
Sources: SURS / SiStat, municipal vital statistics 2020–2024; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Regions
Regional Demography of Slovenia
Slovenia’s demographic future is not the same in every region. Differences between urban centres, rural areas and border regions are becoming increasingly important.
ZRC SAZU analyses for 2018–2038 point to vulnerabilities in Pomurje, Koroška, Zasavje, Haloze and Ormož, and the Kočevje–Bela krajina area.
Key finding: Slovenia’s demographic challenges are not only national, but strongly regional.
Sources: ZRC SAZU; Great Compendium of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024; SURS / SiStat.
European comparison
Slovenia vs European Union
Slovenia’s demographic trends are part of broader European changes, but Slovenia has particular features that distinguish it from the EU average in some indicators.
IMAD notes that Slovenia’s total fertility rate has been slightly above the EU average in the last decade, while the number of women of reproductive age has been declining faster than in most EU Member States.
Key finding: Slovenia performs better than the EU average on some indicators, yet the long-term challenges remain similar: low fertility, population ageing and pressure on the working-age population.
Sources: Eurostat; IMAD, Fertility Indicators in Slovenia; SURS / SiStat.
PDF Research Center
For transparency and easier source verification, this section brings together the key reports, data documents and analyses supporting the research part of the website.
Great Compendium of Demographic ResearchA comprehensive overview of research, projections and municipal data for Slovenia.Open PDF
Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024Visual presentation of key demographic indicators.Open PDF
IMAD: Fertility Indicators in SloveniaOfficial professional analysis of fertility in Slovenia.Open PDF
Data become useful only when they are understood.
The Institute connects demographic indicators with the broader social, developmental and regional context of Slovenia.
Review sources and methodology