Slovenia is not declining evenly. It is disappearing in parts — quietly, gradually and almost unnoticed. For the first time, we will be able to see projections of the future of our communities, year by year.
Key decisions about infrastructure, schools and elderly care are made without a clear view of the future. Demographic changes are slow, but their consequences are long-term and difficult to reverse.
2024
Record-low birth rate
In 2024, the lowest number of births in modern Slovenian history was recorded. The trend continues.
11.500+
Net migration 2024
Migration is the strongest short-term demographic factor, but without spatial analysis it remains poorly understood.
212+
Municipalities without proper projections
Most Slovenian municipalities lack tools to predict local demographic changes at settlement level.
„Kateri kraji bodo čez 30 let še živi — in kateri ne več? To je vprašanje, ki si ga mora zastaviti vsaka skupnost. In na katerega mora politika imeti odgovor."
Demografski časovni stroj · Projektni dokument 2035
Methodology
Three levels of analysis
The project builds a hybrid system that combines classical demographic modelling with spatial modelling and machine learning for local deviations.
Nivo 01
Descriptive level
What has happened over the past 10–20 years. Reconstruction of demographic history by sex, age and location.
Birth and death trends across municipalities
Migration flows between settlements
Ageing of households across local communities
Nivo 02
Predictive level
What is likely to happen over the next 5, 10, 15 and 20 years based on a cohort-component model.
Number of children aged 0–5 in local communities in 2032
Share of 65+, 80+ and 85+ populations by area
Decline and growth of individual settlements
Nivo 03
Scenario level
What happens if key parameters change. Simulations of alternative demographic futures.
Higher or lower fertility
Increased immigration
Outflow of young people from rural areas
Technical system
How the system works
The Demographic Time Machine is not just an analytical tool. It is an operational system for municipal decision-making in childcare, education, healthcare, transport and infrastructure.
01
Cohort-component model
The core demographic engine. A base population by sex, age and location that evolves over time through fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.
Demografski temelj
02
Spatial model
Geocoding at the level of address, building and settlement. Linked to housing stock, service accessibility, new developments and transport corridors. Heatmaps of growth and decline.
GIS & prostorska analiza
03
AI korekcije in scenariji
Machine learning to identify areas where traditional models fail. Influence of housing prices, new developments and jobs. Generative AI interface for municipal data interaction.
Strojno učenje
Data sources
Institutional consortium
The system is based on existing national registers and statistical sources. The challenge is not data collection, but integrating them into a unified geographic framework.
Primarni nosilci podatkov
SURS
Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
Registerska statistika, podatki po spolu, starosti, občini in naselju; gospodinjstva in migracije.
MNZ
Ministry of the Interior
Centralni register prebivalstva, prijave stalnega in začasnega bivališča, tujci in državljanstva.
GURS
Surveying and Mapping Authority of Slovenia / e-Prostor
Naslovni register, register prostorskih enot, kataster nepremičnin in stavb, geokodiranje.
NIJZ
National Institute of Public Health
Reproducktivno zdravje žensk, OBMP, rojstva, zdravstveni dejavniki in regionalni kazalniki.
Dopolnilni nosilci
ZPIZ
Pension and Disability Insurance Institute
Prostorska slika upokojencev in staranja po občinah. Osnova za projekcije oskrbe.
ZZZS
Health Insurance Institute
Zavarovanci, pritiski na primarno zdravstvo in zdravstvene kapacitete po območjih.
MNP
Ministry of Natural Resources and Spatial Planning
Navezava projekcij na OPN, stanovanjsko gradnjo, promet in komunalno infrastrukturo občin.
AJPES
Agency for Public Legal Records
Employer locations and economic activity by area as indicators of local attractiveness.
Users
Who the project is for
The system is designed as a multi-layered tool: from operational planning at the municipal level to strategic demographic policy at the national level.
Municipalities
Concrete forecasts of future needs for kindergartens, schools, care homes, public transport and municipal infrastructure. A basis for spatial plans and development strategies.
State
More effective data-driven demographic policy. Understanding spatial patterns of ageing, childlessness and migration to design targeted measures.
Investors and developers
Understanding future demand for residential, commercial and social infrastructure. Demographic projections for 10–20 years.
Public and media
A clear and understandable insight into the demographic future of local communities. Interactive visuals that make complex data accessible.
Implementation
Project architecture
The project is developed in five phases, from institutional data agreements to pilot implementation in 5–8 diverse municipalities.
Pilot municipalities 2025–2026
The pilot will include 5–8 different types of municipalities covering the full spectrum of demographic challenges in Slovenia, from rural decline to suburban growth with migration.
The pilot will serve as the foundation for expansion across Slovenia and the development of a national platform and API for municipalities and research institutions.
F1
National data agreement
Legal framework, registry mapping, standardisation of geographic identifiers and anonymisation.
F2
Demographic data warehouse
SURS + MNZ + GURS + NIJZ + ZPIZ + ZZZS, harmonised into a common geographic key.
F3
Modelling engine
Cohort-component model, spatial layer, AI-supported corrections and scenarios.
F4
Visual platform
National portal, municipal dashboards and API for researchers and local administrations.
F5
Pilot and validation
Testing in 5–8 selected municipalities. Methodological validation, confidence intervals and traceability.
Connected strategic project
From projections to the silver economy
The Demographic Time Machine shows where and when the needs of an ageing society will become most visible. Silver Economy Slovenia translates this evidence into a development agenda for municipalities, companies, researchers and public institutions.
Silver Economy Slovenia
The initiative connects demographic evidence with new services, pilot municipalities, business solutions and European partnerships.
The Time Machine is the analytical foundation; the silver economy is one of the development responses that can grow from this evidence.
01
Identify future needs
Projections reveal future demand for care, housing, mobility, health and local services.
02
Connect stakeholders
Municipalities, companies, universities and public institutions connect around verified demographic challenges.
03
Develop solutions
The silver economy enables pilot projects, living-lab testing and the scaling of solutions that work.
The project is developed in partnership with municipalities, ministries, research institutions and technology partners. We are looking for collaborators who understand that demographic future must be understood before it happens.