Research and Analysis
This section is dedicated to publishing statistics, graphs, research reports, analytical overviews and professional materials. It is designed as a serious research environment in which the Institute can gradually build and publish its knowledge base.
Fertility and Family in Slovenia
Fertility is one of the key indicators of Slovenia’s demographic future. Data for 2008–2024 show that the number of live births is declining, while the total fertility rate remains below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman.
In 2008, 21,817 children were born in Slovenia; in 2024, the number fell to 16,875. The total fertility rate reached 1.64 in 2021, then declined to 1.51 in 2023 and 1.52 in 2024.
Key finding: the challenge is not only low fertility. The number of women of reproductive age is also declining, motherhood is shifting to later years, and each new generation is becoming numerically smaller.
Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS / SiStat), Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024; IMAD, Fertility Indicators in Slovenia, 2024.
Natural Population Increase
Natural increase represents the difference between the number of live births and deaths. It directly shows whether a population is renewing naturally or shrinking without migration.
Data for Slovenia show a clear turning point after 2016. Since then, the number of deaths has generally exceeded the number of births. In 2020, natural increase reached -5,249, while in 2024 it remained around -4,631.
Key finding: without positive net migration, Slovenia’s total population would no longer grow in the long term.
Sources: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS / SiStat), vital statistics 2008–2024; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Age Structure and Population Ageing
Population ageing is one of the strongest demographic trends in Slovenia. In 2024, Slovenia had approximately 2.12 million residents, but the internal structure of the population is changing.
In 2024, approximately 14.4% of the population was aged 0–14, 63.3% was aged 15–64, and around 22.3% was aged 65 or over.
Key finding: when there are too few children and a growing number of older people, pressure increases on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and the labour market.
Sources: SURS / SiStat; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024; IMAD.
Migration and Population Flows
Migration has become one of the key factors shaping Slovenia’s demographic picture. Since natural increase has been mostly negative after 2016, overall population growth is increasingly sustained by positive net migration.
In 2020, Slovenia recorded 36,110 immigrants, the highest value in the observed period. In 2024, 33,023 people immigrated and 21,491 emigrated, resulting in net migration of +11,532.
Key finding: immigration currently mitigates the effects of low fertility and negative natural increase.
Sources: SURS / SiStat; Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Population Projections for Slovenia
Long-term population projections indicate that Slovenia will continue to face low fertility, population ageing and growing pressure on the working-age population.
According to the baseline EUROPOP2023 scenario, Slovenia is projected to record around 16,735 live births in 2030, approximately 18,098 in 2050 and around 16,592 by the end of the century.
Key finding: future population development will depend not only on the number of births, but above all on the balance between younger, working-age and older generations.
Sources: Eurostat EUROPOP2023; SURS / SiStat; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Municipalities: Top 10 by Natural Increase
Municipal data reveal Slovenia’s demographic picture more precisely than national averages. Between 2020 and 2024, some municipalities recorded positive natural increase, while others recorded a pronounced negative natural increase.
The highest positive natural increase was recorded in Ivančna Gorica (+362), Domžale (+225), Gorenja vas - Poljane (+191), Novo mesto (+152) and Šentjernej (+133).
Key finding: Slovenia’s demography is not evenly distributed. Some municipalities still show demographic vitality, while others have recorded a clear excess of deaths over births.
Sources: SURS / SiStat, municipal vital statistics 2020–2024; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024.
Regional Demography of Slovenia
Slovenia’s demographic future is not the same across all regions. Differences between urban centres, rural areas and border regions are becoming increasingly important.
ZRC SAZU analyses for 2018–2038 highlight Pomurje, Carinthia, Zasavje, the Haloze and Ormož area and the Kočevje–Bela Krajina area as more demographically vulnerable.
Key finding: Slovenia’s demographic challenges are not only national, but strongly regional.
Sources: ZRC SAZU; Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia 2014–2024; SURS / SiStat.
International Comparison: Slovenia vs the European Union
Slovenia’s demographic trends are part of broader European changes, but Slovenia also shows characteristics that distinguish it from the European Union average.
IMAD emphasizes that Slovenia’s total fertility rate was slightly higher than the EU average in the last decade, while the number of women of reproductive age declined faster than in most other EU member states.
Key finding: Slovenia performs better than the EU average in some indicators, but long-term challenges remain similar: low fertility, population ageing and pressure on the working-age population.
Sources: Eurostat; IMAD, Fertility Indicators in Slovenia; SURS / SiStat.
PDF Research Center
For transparency and easier source verification, this section brings together the key reports, data documents and analyses that support the research part of the website.
Downloads:
Comprehensive Collection of Demographic Research and Data of Slovenia
Demographic Data of Slovenia 2008–2024
IMAD: Fertility Indicators in Slovenia
Research Section Redesign Proposal
Sources: SURS / SiStat, IMAD, Eurostat EUROPOP2023, ZRC SAZU and documents collected by the Institute for Demographic Future of Slovenia.