The Government has submitted the draft National Demographic Fund Act (EVA 2026-1611-0061) for first reading. The Fund would manage EUR 16.8 billion in state assets. We support its establishment, while stressing that a fund described as “demographic” must also perform a substantive demographic function. We have prepared ten concrete legislative proposals and established a public National Demographic Fund Observatory.
The draft law provides a sound financial answer to an incompletely framed question. The issue is not only how to meet the costs of population ageing, but how the state can develop timely solutions that keep those costs manageable.
Our point of departure is the Theory of Adaptive Demography (TAD): we examine both how demographic trends may be influenced and how a high quality of life can be organised in a society experiencing long-term population decline. The Fund should finance both responses. At present, it finances only the first—and only in accounting terms.
Each proposal is linked to a specific article and includes a rationale. None requires additional budgetary expenditure.
The phrase “improving the demographic situation” is legally indeterminate. The law should define the demographic objective and the instruments through which it is to be pursued.
Article 1(2)A dedicated development component of the Fund with eight pillars, ranging from data and municipalities to partnership, the silver economy and dignified end-of-life care.
new Article 31aFive per cent of dividends, reallocated from permanent accumulation— without reducing the pension allocation. The source must not depend on an annual political decision.
Articles 31 and 32The draft requires expertise in finance and corporate law on the supervisory board, but nowhere requires demographic expertise. This is a substantive gap.
Article 41 and new Article 41aThe Fund should report on fertility, childlessness, municipal depopulation, care and the effects of funded projects—not only on financial returns.
Articles 54 and 57No organisation—including ours—should be designated in advance as a beneficiary. Public criteria, independent assessment and disclosure of recipients are essential.
new Article 31bEarmarked real estate should include the renovation of vacant buildings for young families, intergenerational living and community-based care.
Article 2(9) and Article 25Municipal projections, linked registers and early-warning systems as public decision-making infrastructure—the logic of the Demographic Time Machine.
new Article 31a, pillar 1Without people capable of interpreting demographic evidence, no fund will be able to spend resources wisely. Foundation: IDP Academy.
new Article 31a, pillar 4The programme should first be piloted and evaluated. If it does not work, the resources should return to accumulation. An institution proposing a new instrument should also propose the conditions for ending it.
transitional provisions| Purpose | Current draft | Option A (recommended) | Option B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pension and Disability Insurance Institute | 40 % | 40 % | 37,5 % |
| Policy for older people | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % |
| Family policy | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % |
| Demographic Resilience Programme | — | 5 % | 5 % |
| Permanent accumulation | 40 % | 35 % | 37,5 % |
IDP ASSESSMENT: based on planned dividends of EUR 296 million in 2027, a 5% share would amount to approximately EUR 14.8 million per year—0.09% of the value of transferred assets. The difference is negligible for the pension system, but would create Slovenia’s first stable, non-budgetary development source for demographic preparedness.
The pillars cover the entire life course—from meeting a partner to a dignified end of life. That is precisely the scope of demography.
A demographic observatory; municipal and settlement-level projections; linked registers; scenarios for 2035, 2050, 2075 and 2100; and early-warning systems for school closures, labour shortages and territorial depopulation.
Pilot demographic municipalities, mobile health and social services, renovation of vacant building stock, and adaptation of transport, utility and school infrastructure.
Supporting opportunities to meet and form relationships, marriage and stable partnerships; removing disadvantages faced by families with two children; support for third and subsequent children; families outside cities; and unfulfilled parenthood.
School workshops, involving young people in developing solutions, research scholarships, and developing young demographers and analysts. Demographic Youth Incubator and IDP Academy.
Technologies for independent living, assisted housing, silver neighbourhoods, mobility for older people, preventive health, living-lab testing and new employment opportunities.
Hospice and palliative-care literacy for relatives, volunteers, schools and public servants; prevention of loneliness; intergenerational housing; and support for bereaved people. We build on the expertise and network of the Slovenian Hospice Society and on the qualifications of colleagues trained to accompany dying people (international thanadoula certification). This is the most underestimated pillar of demographic policy.
Adapting workplaces for older employees, automation in sectors facing structural shortages, artificial intelligence to offset labour scarcity, and reskilling.
Programmes supporting the return of Slovenians from abroad (Slovenians Around the World), attracting professionals, language acquisition and integration. We propose a joint scheme between the Fund and the Government Office for Slovenians Abroad. Nosilec pri IDP: Dr Tony Lenko, Ambassador for Asia and conceptual author of the diaspora project.
East Asia is the only region where ultra-low fertility has already produced measurable structural consequences. Mistakes have already been made there—and their costs incurred.
| Country | What was done | What the evidence shows | What Slovenia can learn |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea TFR 0,75 (2024) | Decades of cash incentives and allowances, followed by centralisation of demographic policy at government level. | Money alone does not reverse the trend. The OECD highlights housing and education costs, long working hours, labour-market duality and the career penalty associated with motherhood. | Demographic policy is simultaneously housing, labour, education and cultural policy. A fund that finances transfers alone risks repeating the Korean mistake. |
| Japan projected population decline of 30% by 2070 | Projections as a basis for social security and regional planning; vacant-house banks, mobile services and employment centres for older people. | Adaptation works when it is planned. Where it was not, empty villages, abandoned housing stock and isolated deaths emerged. | Projections are a tool for planning schools, care and infrastructure—precisely the function of the Demographic Time Machine. |
| Singapore | Linking housing policy with partnership formation, publicly supported opportunities for single people to meet, and a national plan for healthy ageing. | Fertility remains low, but young couples move through the housing pathway more quickly and care for older people is better organised. | “Housing first” as a demographic measure; public support for partnership formation without stigma or moralising. |
| China and Taiwan | Policy reversal after decades of birth restrictions or rapid modernisation. | Once fertility norms change, reversal is exceptionally slow. The lag between an intervention and its effect is 20–30 years. | Measures adopted today are intended for a generation that has already been born. Every year of delay is a lost year. |
Every pillar faces the same constraint: people. Slovenia lacks a professional base capable of translating demographic evidence into municipal, educational, health and economic decisions. No amount of funding can substitute for that capacity.
The Academy does not train a narrow group of demographers. It develops people who apply a demographic lens in every profession: what will this decision mean in 20 or 50 years?
Structured knowledge (demography, data, methods, ethics and communication) → mentored work on a real assignment → reflection and portfolio.
Observer → junior associate → research associate → task lead → project specialist. Each level has evidence requirements and progression criteria.
The programme develops people rather than exploiting unpaid work. It may enable employment but does not promise it. It builds public value, not a captive labour pool.
We will not simply submit the proposal and then forget it. We will monitor the legislative and implementation process publicly, free of charge and on a non-partisan basis. We act in good faith: offering knowledge to the Government and National Assembly, not opposition for its own sake.
| What we monitor | How | Public output |
|---|---|---|
| Legislative process | Monitoring amendments, committee debates and opinions of the Legislative and Legal Service | A concise public analysis at each stage |
| Outcome of our proposals | Table: adopted / partly adopted / rejected / no response | Public table on this page |
| Implementation of the law | Investment-management strategy, annual plan and initial payments | Annual Observatory report |
| Demographic impact | Indicators from Proposal 5—even if the law does not require them, we will publish them | Demographic dashboard for the Fund |
Document PRIP-ZNDS-2026-01 is submitted on behalf of the Institute for Demographic Future.
Director / President of the Institute
Co-founder
Co-founder
Ambassador for Asia · Lead for the Slovenians Around the World programme
The Institute is prepared to present these proposals without charge to the competent committee of the National Assembly, the Ministry of Finance and the Office for Demography; to participate in expert working groups; and to prepare additional analyses, municipal projections or comparative reviews of international arrangements.